Pilot Reveals Areas of World Where You Can Expect ‘The Worst Turbulence’
Terrified of flying after the severe turbulence reported on a Singapore Airlines flight this week that saw one passenger die and several others injured?
You may want to listen Sydney-based Australian pilot Jimmy Nicholson (@jimmynicholson on Instagram. He said the “very sad and very rare event,” which unfolded on Singapore Airlines flight SQ321, was “not a sudden drop due to turbulence” and was actually “a controlled descent.” He explained the difference in a video shared from his TikTok account @jimmy_nicholson, which has received 1.2 million views since it was posted on May 23.
arlier in the video, Nicholson—who was also featured as the bachelor in Bachelor Australia back in 2021—highlighted the parts of the world where pilots can “expect the worst turbulence,” noting an area around the equator known as the intertropical convergence zone.
“This is where the winds from the northern hemisphere converge with the southern hemisphere, often causing bad weather and turbulence. The ITCZ [the intertropical convergence zone] changes throughout the year,” he says in the clip.
Nicholson told Newsweek that in the ITCZ, there often can be “large build-ups of towering cumulonimbus cloud,” meaning a thunderstorm cloud.
“We always avoid these clouds. If you flew through one you would almost certainly experience severe turbulence. The good thing is the radar shows us exactly where these clouds are,” he explained.
It’s understandable that some people struggle with a fear of flying, as clear-air turbulence (CAT) was found to have increased over the past 40 years, according to a June 2023 study published in Geophysical Research Letters.
The study found that the increases were largest over the U.S. and North Atlantic, both of which are busy flight regions.
According to the study, “severe-or-greater CAT increased the most, becoming 55 percent more frequent in 2020 than 1979” and CAT is “projected to intensify in response to future climate change.”
‘The Most Dangerous Turbulence’
Nicholson told Newsweek: “Turbulence will occur on most flights. The majority of turbulence is light annoying bumps. In the 10 years I have been flying, I have only experienced severe turbulence five times or so.
“The most dangerous turbulence is clear air turbulence—it’s dangerous because we cannot see it,” he said.
The pilot explained that “excellent weather forecasts” show pilots exactly where the clear air turbulence is as it’s often found in or near jet streams, “which are essentially powerful air currents—much like the ocean.”
Flying in and out of a jet steam will “often be bumpy,” he said, adding that pilots are given charts before each flight that indicate shear rates—are areas of changing wind strength and directions.
“High wind shear rates equals expected turbulence,” Nicholson said, so pilots often turn the seat belt sign on when flying in these areas. They also rely on pilot reports and then “pick a smooth level based off the reports,” he added.
‘What Actually Happened’ on Singapore Airlines Flight SQ321
A caption shared with the latest viral post reads: “Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 severe turbulence, what the media isn’t telling you.”
Nicholson says in the clip: “Before we get into the facts of what actually happened, let’s talk about the areas in the world in which pilots can expect the worst turbulence.”
Pointing to a graph in the backdrop of the video showing a purple line crossing roughly through the central portions of South America, Africa and the northern tip of Australia, the pilot said “If you look here, this is where you can expect to be in January.
“And this, the orange line, is where you can expect it to be in July,” he added, pointing to a line on the graph cutting across roughly the northern regions of South America and Africa as well as the southern portion of Asia.
He continued: “And as you can see here, this is the approximate location of the convergence zone on the 21st of May,” pointing at several red lines seen across the southern part of Asia.
“This is also the exact area where the incident happened,” Nicholson says, as the backdrop features a closeup view of Myanmar and Thailand, with an airplane icon following a trajectory towards Bangkok.
Referring to a backdrop showing data from the FlightRadar24 website, the pilot said that the flight was traveling to Singapore from London and then “made a left-hand turn and ended up diverting into Bangkok.”
He explains: “Media are reporting that the flight dropped 6,000 feet as a result of the severe turbulence and this is where the media should just ask a pilot. The airplane descended from 37,000 feet at six minutes past the hour, down to 31,000 feet at 12 minutes past the hour.
“This is not a sudden drop due to turbulence. This is a controlled descent, likely because the airplane needed to divert into Bangkok or because they were descending out of the turbulence,” Nicholson says.
Noting that “this is a very sad and very rare event,” the pilot warned that it’s important to remember that “these things don’t happen very often.”
He added: “We do our absolute best to avoid turbulence but sometimes it happens, often around the convergence zone that I spoke about earlier. This is why pilots always say on the PA ‘when you’re seated, make sure your seatbelt is fastened’ in case we experience any unexpected turbulence.”